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高华证券:通胀下的周期板块——只选上游不选中游

发布时间:2019-10-09 16:56:36

高华证券:通胀下的周期板块——只选上游不选中游 2010-01-22 类别: 机构: 研究员:

[摘要]

January22,2010China:Metals&MiningGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch1January22,2010China:Metals&MiningPositionforinflationacceleration/policytightening,preferupstreamMoresignsofgrowthstrength,moresignsofinflationacceleration(1)Commoditypriceshavesurged20%sincethebeginningof4Q09asdemandgrowthaccelerates;seeourNov6reporttitled“Takingthepulseofconstructionvaluechain;growthaccelerating”.(2)Withhighergrowth,weseehigherinflationrisk.Ourchannelchecksindicatetheinfrastructurebottleneckissoseverethatdemandforcargotransportationvs.fulfillmentatonemajorrailwaybureauhasspikedto2.5:1comparedto1:1fulfillmentin4Q08andbelow50%utilization.(3)WemaintainourviewthatChinademandwillremainstructurallystrongalthoughthepathmaybecomemorevolatile.Weexpectahigherriskpremiumforthesectoraspolicytighteningriskriseswithinflationpressure.Initialsignsofaslowdowninpropertysalespromptustosearchforprotectioninmarginsandmultiples.Lookformarginsecurity,whichvariesalongthevaluechain(1)Upstreamsectorslikelytohavebetterpricingpower,althoughrisingdemandisgenerallypositiveforallcommodityprices.(2)Midstreamprocessing(steel/aluminum/cement),couldfacemarginpressureontwofronts:Rawmaterialcostpressurefromupstreamanddemandimpactofpotentialpolicytightening.(3)Analysisofprevioustwocycles(2003/04and2006/08)shows:

-Upstreamcoalindustrymarginspeaked6-9monthsafterCPI.-Thepeakinmidstreamprocessing(steel/metal)marginsalmostcoincidedwithCPIrisingabove3%,butprecededCPI’speakby4-9months.Lookformultipleprotectionaspathgetsbumpierandriskrises(1)Ouranalysisoftwopreviouscyclesshowsthepeakinequitymultiplesforprocessingsub-sectorslargelycoincidedwiththemarginpeakandwhenCPIhit3-4%.CurrentlyChalco/JXC/Conchvaluationsareclosetothosepeaklevels.Ourstandarddeviation(SD)screenshowsJXCandConchnowtradeabove1SD(excluding2007’sunsustainablevaluations).(2)Sub-sectorswithundemandingmultiples/earningsvisibility,e.g.coal,shouldoutperform.YCM’ssharepricehitnewhighsinMay2008,7monthsposttheOct2007marketpeak,3monthsaftertheCPIpeak.(3)Stockactions:AddYCM(H)toCL-Buy,Chalco(H)toCL-Sell.WeupgradeShenhua(A)/ChinaCoal(A)toBuy,downgradeChalco/JXC/ConchtoSell,downgradeAngang/Magang/BaosteeltoNeutral.Wereviseour2009E-2011Eearningsby-48%to+34%andlower12-mTPsby2%-44%.MidstreammarginandvaluationpeakbeforeCPIMidstreamprocessingmarginUpstreamminingmarginChinainflation(rightscale)4567891011121314Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Margin%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05CPIyoy%ChalcoP/EYanzhouCoalP/EChinainflation(rightscale)6789101112131415Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08P/E(X)2%3%4%5%6%7%8%Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05CPIyoy%WedowngradethemidstreamprocessingnamesHK$/RmbTickerPrev.NewChgCurrentUpsidePrev.New2600.HK10.06.5-35%9.67-33%NeutralSell*601600.SS16.011.0-31%14.39-21%NeutralSell0358.HK18.512.0-35%18.04-33%NeutralSell600362.SS40.026.0-35%38.79-31%NeutralSell1088.HK0%36.7536%601088.SS0%32.8229%NeutralBuy1898.HK0%13.6040%601898.SS0%13.3328%NeutralBuy

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